Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has unveiled his re-election manifesto, vowing to revive the economy, combat insecurity, and tackle housing deficits. The plan, titled 'From Reform to Prosperity', sets ambitious targets: 6% annual economic growth by 2031, the recruitment of 78,000 additional security personnel, and the construction of 200,000 affordable homes.

The manifesto, launched on 10 November by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), seeks to build on Tinubu's first-term reforms, which include the removal of fuel subsidies that have driven up living costs. With general elections slated for January 2027, Tinubu is expected to face stiff competition from Peter Obi and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar.

Reforms: A Double-Edged Sword

Since taking office in 2023, Tinubu has implemented a series of economic measures, including the scrapping of fuel subsidies, the unification of exchange rates, and tax reforms in Africa's largest oil producer. While these steps have been praised by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund for restoring macroeconomic stability, they have inflicted pain on ordinary Nigerians.

'Fuel prices went up, and everything that Nigerians consume skyrocketed,' said Joshua Osiyemi, who leads Tracka, a platform launched by the BudgIT Foundation to make government financial data more accessible. 'Most Nigerian families are saying they cannot survive on 10,000 naira [$7.40; £5.50] a day,' he told the BBC, citing a survey by his organisation.

Analysis by Nigeria's International Centre for Investigative Reporting found that the price of imported rice surged by 184% between May 2023 and October 2025. Other staples such as beans, garri, and bread also saw substantial increases. Although the cost of preparing a pot of jollof rice fell by 11.5% between June and September 2026, the sharpest decline in a decade according to SBM Intelligence's Jollof Index, this has not brought significant relief to most households.

'Nigerians spend more and more of their income on basics,' said Ikenna Okonkwo, head of research at SBM Intelligence.

Economic Indicators Show Mixed Progress

Headline inflation stood at 14% in September 2026, down from a peak of 34% in 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The gap between official and parallel exchange rates has also narrowed. Tinubu has claimed that the removal of fuel subsidies freed up over one trillion naira ($740m; £550m) in government resources in just the first two months.

Recently, however, he has pledged to work towards reducing fuel costs. His administration announced a 125 billion naira intervention package for small businesses, including grants and loans for manufacturers.

Atiku has criticised the subsidy removal, writing on X: 'My position stands! I will restore subsidy to make life easier and affordable for Nigerians.' But restoring the subsidy could prove difficult given Nigeria's fiscal realities.

'The current budget for Nigeria in 2026 is about 68.32 trillion naira, with 15.8 trillion going towards debt servicing. So, we are not fiscally strong enough to say that we want to return to the subsidy,' Osiyemi explained.

Insecurity and Power Challenges

While the reforms are credited with restoring some stability at the macroeconomic level, they have created instability in households. With elections two months away, the cost of living and economic hardship are the major issues for many voters.

'These kinds of things can get punished in polls,' Okonkwo warned.

To address these concerns, Tinubu has promised to lower the cost of living, grow the economy by 6%, and halve youth unemployment if re-elected. Achieving these targets will require increased oil and agricultural production. But much of Nigeria's agricultural output is concentrated in the north, where insecurity has made farming increasingly difficult.

Osiyemi noted that many farmers are reluctant to return to their fields. 'They're not sure whether when they go to their farms, they have the chances of also coming back home, to meet with their family.'

To tackle insecurity, Tinubu proposes recruiting an additional 28,000 military personnel and 50,000 police officers. However, Okonkwo argues that 'the security situation, especially in the north, is more complex than a matter of just recruiting more soldiers.' The threats include jihadists, kidnap gangs, and herder-farmer conflicts in central Nigeria.

Insecurity is also a top priority for Obi, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) presidential candidate, who came third in the 2023 election and drew significant support from young Nigerians. He unveiled his 2027 Governance Agenda on 10 November under the slogan 'A New Nigeria is Possible', placing national unity and security at the forefront.

'Nobody will kidnap school children and disappear into the bush. If you kidnap children and go into the bush, you will not be alone there. We will come after you,' Obi declared.

Delivering on these ambitions will also depend on improving electricity supply, particularly for businesses and industries. Tinubu promises to increase available electricity generation to 10,000MW. 'There is nothing in the manifesto about where that investment is going to come from because it will cost a lot of money,' Okonkwo said.

Nigeria's power sector has suffered from years of underinvestment. The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission reports that the country had installed generation capacity of 13,625MW at the end of 2024 but generated an average of just 4,223MW during the year. Ageing infrastructure, inadequate maintenance, gas supply constraints, and funding challenges have hindered performance. Unreliable electricity forces many households and businesses to rely on generators, pushing up costs.

The manifesto also promises to build 200,000 affordable homes, a fraction of Nigeria's estimated housing deficit of 14.9 million units, according to a 2025 technical committee report.

Analysts say that for Nigerians to feel a meaningful improvement, the reforms must go beyond the promises in the manifesto. 'Some of the items in the manifesto seem bloated, but if they can be committed to it, I want to believe that quite a number of these items that they have here are very much achievable,' Osiyemi said.

'The big thing, if the APC wins, which they have to do and is a tall order, is to regain the trust of Nigerians,' Okonkwo concluded.

In the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu won with 8.79 million votes, ahead of Atiku and Obi, amid growing economic hardship after eight years of Muhammadu Buhari's APC government. 'APC were able to win because opposition was divided between two very strong candidates with two regional bases. In the end, we still go down to basic questions like the region you are from and tribal sentiments,' Okonkwo said.

As Nigeria heads towards the 2027 elections, Tinubu, Atiku, and Obi are once again central to the contest, but the opposition faces a familiar challenge: building a united front and support beyond regional strongholds. 'It will play out like it did in 2023,' Okonkwo predicted. 'The APC are in a stronger position being the incumbent party and the momentum that some of the opposition candidates had in 2023 has faded.'