ANC Faces Tough Battle as South Africa Votes in Local Elections

South Africans are casting their ballots in highly competitive local elections that could deal a significant blow to the African National Congress (ANC), the party that has dominated the country's political landscape since the end of apartheid in 1994. With more than 500 parties contesting, the elections are seen as a referendum on the ANC's ability to govern nearly 300 municipalities responsible for essential services like water, electricity, and refuse collection.

A Party Under Pressure

The ANC's support has been eroding steadily over the years, driven by public anger over corruption, high unemployment, and crime. In the 2004 general election, the party secured 70% of the vote. Two decades later, that share plummeted to 40%, and in the 2024 national election, it lost its parliamentary majority for the first time. Polls and analysts predict further losses in these local elections, despite President Cyril Ramaphosa's insistence that the party is on an upward trajectory. "What I'm seeing here is that the ANC is going higher and higher and on the 4th [of November] we will show those naysayers," Ramaphosa told supporters at the party's final rally on Sunday.

In townships like Alexandra, north-east of Johannesburg, the ANC has historically enjoyed strong support, but poor governance and voter apathy are chipping away at that base. The BBC visited the sprawling township a week before the elections and found a mix of hope and disillusionment.

Voices from Alexandra

Eighteen-year-old Sanele Ntombela is a first-time voter excited to make his voice heard. "We face many challenges in Alexandra. There's rubbish everywhere and we struggle with electricity and water and many other issues," he said, standing with friends on a street corner. Most of his peers, however, said they had no intention of voting and had not registered, citing a lack of change and deteriorating basic services. Just metres away, heaps of rubbish lay beneath a streetlight pole covered in election posters, and drain water trickled through potholes that have gutted the road.

Zandile Mncube, 33, is registered to vote but has decided not to. "It makes no difference [whether I vote or not]. Things have gotten worse over the years," she said, blaming poor service delivery and the performance of local leaders. Alexandra, known as Alex, sits a stone's throw from Sandton, Africa's richest square mile, yet the contrast is stark. Sandton boasts skyscrapers, designer shops, and well-maintained roads, while Alex is characterised by cramped housing, piles of uncollected rubbish, and the heavy stench of raw sewage.

Beyond Alexandra: A Wider Pattern

The issues plaguing Alexandra are not unique. A drive around Gauteng province reveals similar neglect, especially in townships. South of Johannesburg, Soweto looks marginally cleaner, but residents also complain about service delivery. Mduduzi Makhubo, 45, who has lived in Soweto his entire life, told the BBC about the community's daily struggles with water and electricity. "Every Monday we know we won't have water after 2pm," he said. Makhubo is registered to vote and intends to use his ballot to address what he calls the "arrogance" of local leaders and to "change the status quo".

Years of reports by the auditor-general have highlighted the dire state of most of South Africa's 257 municipalities. A recent report gave only 39 clean audits between 2024 and 2025, the highest ranking a public entity can achieve. None of Gauteng's three metro cities, Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Ekurhuleni, featured on that list. Earlier this year, auditor-general Tsakani Maluleke said Johannesburg "needs ongoing attention". "If we don't do that, we are going to continue on this slide where financial health deteriorates [and] where service delivery continues to be compromised, which is what we are living," she told lawmakers. The city has been labelled "effectively bankrupt" due to its dire finances, with dirty streets, unstable electricity, and persistent water issues common for years.

Coalition Politics and the Road Ahead

Experts agree that all eyes will be on Africa's wealthiest city and the country's seven other biggest municipalities, particularly those in Gauteng, when results come in. Of South Africa's eight metros, only three are governed by a single party. In Gauteng, all three metros are run by coalition governments, with the ANC as the largest party. Political analyst Melanie Verwoerd said the elections would be a "verdict ... and judgment" on the ANC. "And the expectation is that the ANC generally in the country is going to [perform] the worst it's ever done," she said.

Several polls point to a continued decline in support for the party in Wednesday's election. One Ipsos poll put ANC support at 30%, down from 46% in the last local elections in 2021. The same poll suggests a slight increase for the Democratic Alliance (DA), especially in Johannesburg, predicting 25% support, up from 22%. DA leader Helen Zille has attracted attention with an unconventional campaign, swimming in crater-sized potholes, ziplining over sinkholes, and riding into her final rally in a classic BMW 325i, known locally as a "Gusheshe". She believes the DA is the country's best choice, telling local radio that "towns and cities that work best are under DA governance".

Verwoerd predicted that coalitions would continue to be the order of the day across Gauteng, though such arrangements have often been unstable and chaotic, with constant leadership changes affecting service delivery. She said the most stable coalitions would replicate the national power-sharing agreement between the ANC and DA. Reflecting on Cape Town, she said it was unlikely the DA would lose control of the municipality, widely considered the country's best-performing metro and run by the DA since the late 2000s. Ethekwini, which includes Durban, would be a "different story". The uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party, founded by former President Jacob Zuma, has been projected to perform well there but may not secure an outright majority, needing partners to form a government. Verwoerd noted that forming a government would be "very messy" given the MK Party's refusal to work with either the ANC or DA. A confident Zuma vowed on Sunday to take control of a number of municipalities after the elections.

Another analyst, Dr Levy Ndou, echoed Verwoerd's assessment, saying a coalition between the DA and ANC seemed unavoidable in most metros. "We're not sure whether the arrangement of the government of national unity could have the potential to influence how the metros are going to be run," he said. Both experts also highlighted declining voter turnout, especially among young people. Over 29 million citizens are registered to vote, but turnout has steadily declined. Ndou attributed this to the "calibre" of candidates and the lack of visibility of local councillors during campaigns.

South Africa's electoral commission has seven days to announce the results, and parties have 14 days to form a governing structure. As the nation awaits the outcome, the elections will undoubtedly shape the future of local governance and the ANC's political trajectory.