In a stark warning set to be delivered on Friday, the head of the Metropolitan Police will declare that policing in England and Wales is "heading for failure" unless urgent reforms are implemented. Sir Mark Rowley is expected to argue that the current system is ill-equipped to handle the sophistication of modern criminals and is in desperate need of an overhaul not seen since the 1960s.
A Radical Restructuring Proposal
Sir Mark's proposal involves replacing the existing 43-force structure with a three-tier model. This would consist of local teams addressing neighbourhood issues, regional forces sharing specialist resources, and a new National Police Service dedicated to tackling the most serious crimes. He suggests creating eight to ten regional police forces, supported by hundreds of local policing commands.
According to Sir Mark, organized crime groups, fraud networks, cyber-criminals, and those involved in online child abuse increasingly operate across regional and international borders, while police forces remain organized around local areas. He will warn that the current system is struggling to keep pace with these threats, stating: "We have 43 overstretched forces trying to do too much, with too little."
He believes that merging forces would reduce duplication and could free up thousands of roles to be redirected towards front-line policing.
Political and Professional Backdrop
The proposals follow a consultation launched by Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood in January, which included plans for a National Police Service to tackle the most complex crimes and a possible merger of the 43 forces into fewer, larger forces. However, some rural police and crime commissioners have described the plans as "political manoeuvring" by larger forces to "load the dice in their favour." The Association of Police and Crime Commissioners (APCC) has also questioned whether merging forces is the best way to improve policing, saying: "The case for modernisation and a National Police Service is clear. The case for reducing 43 forces to nine regional 'mega-forces' is not."
A Home Office spokesperson defended the plans, saying: "Our current model of policing has not changed since the 1960s and is no longer fit for purpose." Prime Minister Andy Burnham has not yet commented.
Financial Pressures and Falling Performance
Sir Mark has also highlighted the financial pressures facing policing, asserting that spending on policing had fallen from about 0.9% of GDP to 0.7% since 2010. He says years of underinvestment have left forces relying on ageing technology, while officers are increasingly diverted from neighbourhood policing to deal with other demands, including mental health and social care.
He will also point to falling police performance, saying positive outcomes nationally are now less than half the level they were 12 years ago, while public confidence has fallen by 9%.
In related remarks, Sir Mark has previously warned that the court system is under massive strain and has accepted mistakes made over Simon Levy but defended the investigation into murders.
