In a move that has sent ripples through Washington, Vice President JD Vance publicly attributed the Republican Party's midterm election losses to the war in Iran, a stark critique that many see as an attempt to distance himself from President Donald Trump as he eyes a potential 2028 presidential run.
Vance's statement, posted on X on Wednesday, came just hours after Democrats secured control of both the House and Senate. In the 600-word post, the vice president acknowledged that Trump's 2024 voters had abandoned Republicans in the midterms. "The reason we lost is the war," he wrote. "The president himself said so last night."
Trump, in interviews late Tuesday and Wednesday, defended the war but conceded that it played a role in the Democrats' victory. Vance's opposition to the conflict has been an open secret in Washington. While he has publicly supported the war since the US and Israel attacked Tehran in February, he has reportedly voiced dissent in private meetings with administration officials. Those disagreements had remained out of public view until now.
A Political Earthquake
Vance's statement is unprecedented in recent US political history. It is rare for a sitting vice president to so sharply break with the president on a signature foreign policy issue. "If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest," Vance said.
In a surprising turn, Trump, who typically demands unwavering loyalty from his senior advisers, agreed with Vance that the midterms were "largely" decided by the war. He added that he would "do it again" if given the same choices. "I know how he feels about it. I think it was -- I think it was fine," Trump told reporters when asked about Vance's post. "I knew that when I went in, and we stopped them from having a nuclear weapon, and they will never have a nuclear weapon."
Vance's statement seemed like "a way of separating himself from Trump," said Daniel Byman, a foreign policy expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Drawing contrasts with Trump will be a delicate balancing act if Vance seeks the presidency, Byman added. That balance was on display in Vance's post: he didn't mention Trump by name and attributed much of his election analysis to unnamed pollsters. Vance "put his toe in the water to see what he's going to do," Ashley Davis, a Republican strategist, told the BBC.
A Four-Point Plan
Beyond criticizing the war, Vance offered a political roadmap that could preview a presidential campaign. He distilled the party's strategy to win back voters into a four-point plan: "1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel." The list encapsulates much of Vance's worldview since he burst onto the national political scene and reads like the core argument of a future stump speech.
The next presidential election is still two years away. Vance is expected to run but hasn't made an official decision, and aides insist he is still mulling it over. It's also debatable how much Vance actually broke from Trump. According to The New York Times, Vance showed the message to Trump before posting it online. Trump could change his mind and make clear he will brook no dissent from Vance or anyone else. The president has been circumspect about whom he would support as the 2028 Republican nominee. He has praised Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on several occasions but hasn't said when or if he would make an endorsement. Trump appears to relish the guessing game, even floating the idea of a third term, which is barred by the US Constitution.
Vance's midterms missive might not be that significant in the end. Or it could have been the starting gun for the 2028 race and the battle for the post-Trump Republican Party.
