Scientists Predict 2026 Will Be Hottest Year on Record as COP31 Opens

As global leaders and negotiators convene in Antalya, Turkey, for the opening of COP31, the latest UN climate summit, scientists have issued a stark warning: 2026 is on track to become the hottest year ever recorded. The prediction, from independent US research group Berkeley Earth, comes with 95% confidence, even with two months remaining in the year.

The forecast underscores the relentless pace of global warming, driven by human-induced climate change and a powerful El Niño event. From Western Europe to Indonesia, countries have already battled extensive wildfires this year, and a catastrophic glacier collapse in Nepal claimed more than 1,000 lives, highlighting the deadly consequences of a heating planet.

A Relentless Rise in Temperatures

"We have had a run of record warm years," said Dr Robert Rohde of Berkeley Earth. "That is what we expect as global warming progresses… glaciers collapsing, record-breaking heatwaves and droughts." His warning was reinforced on Friday when the EU's Copernicus climate service confirmed that October was the hottest ever recorded.

But Rohde cautioned that this is only the beginning. "There is potential for much larger and much more dramatic changes down the line," he said. The primary driver is the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, largely from burning fossil fuels.

The UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its own report on Monday, forecasting that 2026 will rank among the four warmest years on record. It also warned that 2027 will bring no relief, as an unusually powerful El Niño continues to push temperatures higher. "It gives new meaning to the phrase off the charts," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

COP31: A Critical Juncture

The findings cast a long shadow over the COP31 negotiations in Antalya. While previous summits focused primarily on reducing emissions, many nations now face the dual challenge of cutting carbon while adapting to increasingly extreme weather.

"No single COP is a silver bullet. No single conference can bridge the chasm between the science and reality," Simon Stiell, the UN's climate chief, is expected to tell governments. But he will add: "The urgency of this moment must drive us forward. Global heating is already costing the Earth."

Last month, UK defence secretary Wes Streeting warned the public and businesses to prepare for supply chain disruptions from climate emergencies, including stockpiling food. He pointed to this summer's wildfires and record heat, which the Met Office said was made 130 times more likely by climate change, as well as increased flood risk this winter due to El Niño.

"We're designed for a climate of the 20th century that we don't live in any longer, so it's going to change all aspects of our lives," Stephen Belcher, chief scientist at the Met Office, told BBC's Panorama.

The Ocean's Role

The additional greenhouse gases trapped in the atmosphere have captured extra heat, about 90% of which has been absorbed by the oceans. "That's where El Niño comes in," said Saulo. "It doesn't add new heat to the planet. It releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured. There is simply more heat available to release."

This natural climate pattern is pushing global temperatures even higher. The world is currently on track for 2.8C of warming above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, far exceeding the 1.5C goal set under the Paris Agreement to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

Negotiations and Divisions

Over the next two weeks, leaders including UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham will attend the conference. Previous summits have yielded new targets for cutting fossil fuels, increasing finance for developing countries, and protecting forests. Although emissions continue to rise, countries have made significant progress in expanding renewable energy capacity. The International Energy Agency predicts growth in the next six years will be 57% greater than the previous period.

Stiell is also expected to say that expanding renewable energy is both a climate and economic solution for recent energy shocks. "Global renewables saved around half a trillion dollars last year."

China remains the largest contributor to the global increase in renewable power capacity, but that will decline as other developing nations expand. The Turkish government wants discussions this year to focus on a new goal for electrification, moving energy systems away from fossil fuels towards electricity, and cutting waste levels.

However, the discussion is likely to split countries. Early drafts of the EU position seen by the BBC make clear they would only sign up to a goal on electrification if it did not allow countries to meet the target using gas. "It is important that progress on electrification is underpinned by clean energy sources," it said in a memo to members. But nations such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have previously pushed the interim use of gas as a "cleaner" fossil fuel alternative to coal.

Saulo said she could not explain why countries have previously failed to reach agreement on certain issues, but noted: "What I see are the impacts of what this lack of consensus generates with more extreme events."

The BBC understands that the UK government is reluctant to set any new goals at COP31 and believes the focus should be on achieving existing agreements. However, in September the government was criticised by MPs on the International Development Committee for cutting its aid budget, meaning it could not fulfil previous climate funding commitments.

Wealthier nations had agreed at previous COP meetings to triple the amount of money going to developing countries to help them adapt to climate change to at least $85bn (£63bn) by 2035. The latest data from 2024 shows that countries have reached about a third of that figure, but the UN said this week that the current damage from climate change is "substantial" and much more money could be needed.

Many countries have redirected aid budgets towards defence spending and short-term financial relief for households as gas and oil prices spike following the Iran-US war. Governments are also expected to use the forum to discuss global AI policy, including the growing demand for energy and water resources from data centres underpinning the technology's rollout.