When Tony Blair's government first coined the term NEET in 1999, it referred to some 170,000 teenagers not in education, employment, or training. Today, that number has swelled to nearly one million under-25s, a staggering figure that represents both a colossal drain on public funds and a profound human tragedy. The cost to taxpayers runs into billions, but the social and moral implications are incalculable.
A Radical Prescription
On Tuesday, former Labour MP Alan Milburn will unveil the culmination of a year-long review aimed at tackling this entrenched crisis. His proposals are bold, controversial, and, by his own admission, not for the faint-hearted. Central to his plan is a fundamental rebalancing of government spending: shifting the ratio of what is spent on benefits for young people versus employment support from a staggering 25:1 to just 2:1.
This would mean significant cuts to benefits for many young people, coupled with a substantial expansion of further education, training, health support, and subsidised jobs. Milburn is also advocating for a new law that would guarantee every young person a job, apprenticeship, training place, or health treatment, placing a legal duty on authorities to provide these opportunities.
Political Ripples
The review, set in motion by Keir Starmer, now lands in the lap of a new prime minister, Andy Burnham. How Burnham responds will test his appetite for radical reform and his willingness to engage in a political fight over welfare. Milburn has been in close contact with Downing Street and the Treasury, ensuring that Burnham and his team are fully aware of what is coming. A government source expressed hope that this time, "we've done the groundwork - it's not a rushed Treasury process driven by numbers."
Yet opposition is inevitable. The Conservatives and Reform UK have both criticised the plan for not going far enough or fast enough in cutting the benefits bill. The Greens have already labelled the proposals "cruel." But the real challenge may come from within Labour's own ranks. Memories of Keir Starmer's failed attempt to reform welfare, which ended in a humiliating climbdown, loom large. Pat McFadden, the welfare secretary, has spent countless hours engaging with Labour MPs to build support.
The Human and Economic Cost
The scale of the problem is immense. New research from the Liberal Democrats suggests that without intervention, the number of NEETs could reach 1.26 million by 2031. Milburn puts the annual cost at £22 billion. His plan, however, will take up to a decade to make a real dent in the benefits bill and will require billions in upfront investment.
Critics argue that the plan is too slow and too expensive. But Milburn insists that the vast majority of young people want to work and that the current system fails them. His review calls for changes not just in welfare but in health and education systems, representing a real expansion of the state's role in the next generation's future.
As the political debate unfolds, one thing is clear: the status quo is untenable. The question is whether Burnham has the political courage to embrace Milburn's radical vision and deliver lasting change for Britain's lost youth.
