UK Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has refused to provide a cost estimate for the government's reversal on care worker settlement rules, leaving questions unanswered about the financial implications of the policy shift.
Visa Approvals Drop 15% Year-on-Year
New figures reveal that 727,487 people were granted UK visas between July 2025 and June 2026, excluding visitors and transit passengers. This represents a 15% decrease compared to the previous year. These numbers reflect approvals, not actual arrivals.
Study visas dominated the category, accounting for 53% of all approvals. Chinese nationals formed the largest group, comprising 23% of study visa recipients, with China and India together making up nearly half of all study visas, a trend that has persisted for years.
Care Worker Policy Reversal Raises Fiscal Questions
The Home Secretary's refusal to quantify the cost of the care worker settlement climbdown comes amid broader scrutiny of the government's immigration strategy. The reversal, which allows care workers to bring dependents and access settlement, was announced earlier this year following widespread criticism from the care sector.
Critics argue that the lack of a cost estimate undermines transparency, especially as the government seeks to balance economic needs with public concerns over immigration levels. The care sector has long warned that restrictive policies exacerbate staff shortages, but the fiscal impact of the U-turn remains unclear.
Mahmood's stance suggests the government is keen to avoid framing the policy as a financial burden, instead emphasizing its necessity for stabilizing the care workforce. However, without concrete figures, stakeholders are left to speculate on the long-term costs and benefits.
Broader Immigration Context
The visa data also highlights the continued importance of international students to the UK's education sector. Despite the overall decline in visa approvals, study visas remain the primary route for legal migration, with China and India as key source countries.
The government has faced pressure to reduce net migration while addressing labor shortages in critical sectors like health and social care. The care worker settlement reversal is seen as a pragmatic move, but it risks inflaming debates over immigration control.
As the Home Secretary remains tight-lipped on costs, the opposition and watchdog groups are likely to intensify calls for transparency. The coming months will test whether the policy shift achieves its intended effect without straining public finances further.
